The connections between the 49ers and Texans may be more real than some realize.
There has been one topic that has dominated discussions surrounding the 49ers since Jimmy Garoppolo was injured during the 2020 season - Who will be the 49ers quarterback in 2021?
As speculation continues to swirl around Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans future, I take a deep dive into the Jimmy Garoppolo situation and how it leaves the door wide open for a potential blockbuster trade that would have the league shook.
The tweet from Deshaun Watson that started the fire:
The above tweet was deleted the next day.
There are multiple layers you need to look at when a player sub-tweets to social media because in today's world, players are starting to control their own narratives more and more with these platform's and it's important to be able to quantify what these hidden messages could mean.
The first thing I took into account was the timing of the tweet. Deshaun Watson fired off his spicy tweet after the Texans announced the hiring of new GM, former Bill Belichick right-hand man, Nick Casario.
And this is where the connection to the 49ers begins:
When I saw the timing of the GM announcement from the Texans and the starting QBs tweet, I knew something was up.
I already understood Deshaun Watson's vibe towards the Texans prior to this tweet.
He was clearly upset about the DeAndre Hopkins trade after finding out about the transaction via twitter. Deshaun was very outspoken in regards to the trade rumors surrounding his close friend/WR Will Fuller and what impact it would have on the Texans organization if the speedy WR was moved.
Deshaun Watson speaking openly about his distain of the potential trade told me two things:
- The Texans were actively shopping Fuller against Deshaun's wishes
- There was a clear disconnect between the star QB and ownership (Former HC/GM Bill O'Brien had already been fired)
Below is when the #SmokeChasers first responded to this situation:
Deshaun is someone I have always held in high regard, as he was one of my all-time favorite college players and prospects.
You'll also hear me talk a lot about "Dynasty Fantasy Football". Because of my interests in both the NFL Draft and Dynasty, it allows me to evaluate players without 49ers-colored goggles.
I own Deshaun Watson in my most important Dynasty league and I am very protective of "my guys", which also translates into me knowing everything that these players have done since entering the league. This will be Deshaun's 4th year as my starting QB in a two-QB dynasty league. This is how I play GM. Deshaun is like a son to me.
The point being I have been tracking this situation far prior to the Deshaun Watson tweet just a couple days ago.
Reports Confirms What The #SmokeChasers Believed:
As we sit today, it's crystal clear that this situation is absolutely real and the smoke has led us to massive nuclear fire.
Based on how I have tracked Deshaun's career to this point, I 100% BELEIVE THAT DESHAUN WATSON WILL BE PLAYING QUARTERBACK FOR ANOTHER NFL TEAM IN 2021.
THE CONNECTION - BOSTON BRED
Oh, Jimmy.
Who would have thought we would be in this situation that we find ourselves in today.
As I think back to last years NFC Championship game, my son and I left Levi's Stadium after the 49ers punched their ticket to the Super Bowl - feeling great about the future of the 49ers led by Jimmy Garoppolo at QB.
Jimmy wound up barely playing in 2020 due to a high ankle sprain. He attempted to return but it was clear that it was still bothering him and the 49ers proceeded to put Jimmy on ice.
After an entire offseason of Super Bowl nightmares and constant updates of players getting injured, tension amongst the fanbase and media came to a boiling point.
With sub-optimal QB play for the 49ers all season, all fans had left was to dream about what "could be" with a healthy starting QB.
As I am constantly reminded by the league,
everything can change in the blink of an eye.
11/17 Kyle Indicated That Jimmy Will Be His QB in 2021
If there is anything that I've learned about Kyle and John's tendencies when speaking to the media about player transactions and/or future player aspirations with the team, they tell you exactly what you want to hear.
But this isn't the first smoke signal I've ever chased down.
Whether it's leaving Ruggs/Jeudy/Bowden on their TV's in their home offices when giving the faithful a tour of their quarantined set-up, then distributed the video to the world -
These dudes are gamers. They absolutely know and understand the game within the game and how certain messages push certain narratives that benefit what they are trying to accomplish. They are pro's and this is exactly how it should be done too. It's how I would do it if I was GM.
But we can see past that part and here is where Kyle, John, Jimmy and his camp all showed their cards, in my opinion.
Jimmy Looking Healthy On The Practice Field In AZ
My *Lightbulb* Moment
Watching what appeared to be a healthy Garoppolo practicing in the Arizona sun indicated to me that Jimmy's time with the 49ers could really be done.
This video above was my *lightbulb* moment.
Looking at a guy (Jimmy) in that video flipping his hips back and fourth, which requires a lot of strength and force driven from the calf/ankle area, I see a guy who can go out and sling it on Sunday.
He just showed me the full range of motion and I don't see any limitations from a high ankle sprain that would keep him out. Keeping in mind, he played an entire half of football with a high ankle sprain.
This was also at the time the 49ers almost had no healthy QBs:
- Nick Mullens goes down for the year
- CJ Beathard becomes 3rd starting QB for the 49ers of 2020
- Josh Johnson goes to the Covid List
- Jimmy still 'unable' to play
- Kyle Juszczyk becomes emergency QB
- Team signs Josh Rosen off of Tampa's PS mid-week (only other active QB that following Sunday w/ Beathard)
And being the 5th-dimensional thinker that I am, I start asking myself -
Why isn't Jimmy Garoppolo playing if he's healthy?
We watched the 2016 San Francisco 49ers sputter to a dismal 1-4 start with Blaine Gabbert leading the troops.
I watched Blaine Gabbert be a walking disaster and couldn't understand why the QB (Kaepernick) who was "built" to run Chip Kelly's college-style spread offense rode the bench.
You're telling me a guy who was the only player in NCAA history to throw for 10,000 yards and rush for 4,000 yards couldn't beat out Blaine FREAKING Gabbert?
I didn't buy it.
It wasn't until the front office literally ripped up Kaepernick's contract, I realized why Colin couldn't sniff the field - It was because of the injury language in his contract. This made sense since the player and team had a dispute over an injury in the offseason leading up to the 2016 season.
When the 49ers were cleared of any injury liabilities and specific language related to injury guarantee's in his contract, Kaepernick was immediately named the starter and started the following week.
This ensured the 49ers wouldn't get locked into another year of Kaepernick in the event of a catastrophic injury and also provided an out in the contract.
This is where the business side of football meets the field and further
explains my *Lightbulb* moment with Jimmy Garoppolo and why he likely was not playing towards the end of the year, even when he appeared healthy.
The window was opened but player never stepped through it.
Do we officially know that Jimmy Garoppolo will be somewhere else in 2021? We do not.
There is still a good chance Garoppolo plays for the 49ers considering he is the only 49ers QB who is currently under contract.
Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle/John all spoke about a reunion in 2021 but have also left the door open for the team to upgrade. The front office is smart enough to not pigeon-hole themselves into a situation based on something they say.
This is why we have to be very thorough when trying to breakdown what they are saying.
However, we see the smoke and we can not ignore it.
If the 49ers are truly looking for a potential upgrade at the QB position, as they have shown this tendency in the past by exploring the potential of Tom Brady (a short-term solution) after Garoppolo led the 49ers to a 13-3 record and a Super Bowl appearance just the season prior.
Jimmy Garoppolo can not be traded due to a no-trade clause in his contract. He can only be traded if he agrees to the destination...
A blockbuster trade could be something that may be more attainable than some may think.
*Deshaun Watson Has Entered The Chat*
First of all, if you've read this far - congratulations. You deserve a medal or something.
Also if you read this far, you now have an understanding to how I have been processing this Deshaun Watson situation and why I think there is a perfect storm brewing that could benefit both sides who seemingly want a fresh start.
The new Texans GM, who now has a disgruntled superstar QB on his hands that will firmly request a trade, will need a new Qb and does not have a draft pick until the 3rd round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
Not a great scenario if you are a rookie GM.
The San Francisco 49ers have a shiny top 12 draft pick in the upcoming draft and the first round will be littered with NFL Caliber QBs.
Texans GM Nick Caserio was the Director of Player Personnel in New England from 2008-2020. Caserio likely had a very large voice in drafting Tom Brady's heir-apparent in Jimmy Garoppolo out of Eastern Illinois in 2014.
Not only could the new GM move a disgruntled QB but he could also attain a QB that he is extremely familiar with.
Caserio will likely assemble a staff with New England ties and philosophies, where a QB like Jimmy Garoppolo would fit perfectly.
This is actually a scenario where I can see San Francisco maximizing Jimmy Garoppolo's trade value because of the familiarity that Caserio has with Garoppolo.
You would also have to assume there is a connection between front office's as John Lynch and Co. did swing the trade for Jimmy from NE back in 2017, while Caserio was running the front office for the Patriots.
Another dot to connect, the 49ers spent a week in Houston practicing against the Texans prior to a Preseason football game during the 2018 season. If you need ownership approval to swing a trade for Garoppolo, it is helpful that ownership and high-level executives saw first hand how Jimmy Garoppolo ran the show for the 49ers in the 2018 joint practice sessions.
Rewind to the original Jimmy trade; the 49ers were able to get Jimmy Garoppolo for a 2nd round pick from Nick Caserio's Patriots. John Lynch can make the case in a potential trade to the Texans that Jimmy has more value now than at the time of the trade in 2017. Since then Jimmy has led the 49ers to the Super Bowl and was one of the most efficient starting QBs in the league.
The Texans will counter by referencing Jimmy's availability or lack thereof due to injury and try to dance on the narrative driven by fans and media but at the end of the day, John knows how Caserio feels about Jimmy, so there is plenty to back Lynch holding firm on trade compensation, opening the door for a very realistic trade scenario for both sides.
If the 49ers can get Bill Belichick on the phone, you could definitely see Lynch be in a nice position to swing a competitive trade involving Jimmy Garoppolo by leveraging Houston and New England against each other.
You must remember, NFL Front Office's don't run off of media-fan created narratives. They are operating off their own agenda's.
Based on how we see the current leverage playing out between each franchise and Houston currently in hot water with their QB which does not seem repairable, I see the above compensation presented by Bleacher Report being absolutely in the ballpark of reality, maybe could even be considered a bit much.
The 49ers have
a real opportunity
make a competitive bid for Deshaun Watson, that wouldn't destroy the future of the franchise.
From a financial standpoint
and arguably one of the most important parts of this puzzle to consider, a trade could be more
than feasible based on swapping Jimmy Garoppolo and Deshaun Watson's contracts. I would also imagine that Jimmy would be open to a restructure if traded to a destination he wanted to be.
I reached out Akash Anavarathan of
fourthandnine.com
about the potential financial implications of a Deshaun Watson trade to the 49ers and the viability of it and here is what Akash dug up:
From the outside looking in, it appears everything has aligned for an insane trade to occur as two organizations have a chance to hit the reset button.
Based on the 49ers handling of Jimmy Garoppolo at the end of the 2020 season, the team and player have opened the door for this speculation. Even though I understand the logic behind siting Jimmy for the year, it doesn't change the fact that it poured gasoline on this situation.
Will a trade ever happen for Deshaun Watson? Will Jimmy Garoppolo be the 49ers QB in 2021?
Only time will tell.
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